Michigan is among the states deciding when to hold their Repubican Presidential primary next year.
The state Senate has approved legislation that would set Michigan's primary for March 15th of next year. Illinois and Missouri plan to hold their primaries that day, and some other Midwestern states may also choose that date to create a regional or "Big Ten" Primary. But some members of the state House want an earlier date for Michigan.
Western Michigan University Political Science Professor John Clark says states want to maximize their impact on the nominating process. But he says often things don't work out as intended. Clark says there are many factors, such as the mix of candidates in the race, and who is still campaigning when your state casts its vote. "We're talking about a process with a lot of moving parts, only one which is the calendar."
"We're talking about a process with a lot of moving parts, only one which is the calendar."
In 2008 Michigan moved its Republican Primary and Democratic Caucus to an early date in the calendar seeking more influence in the process. The national parties sanctioned Michigan since it was earlier than national rules allow.
The Democratic Party's sanctions were tougher than the Republicans, so the Presidential candidates seeking the Democratic nomination didn't even campaign in Michigan Ironically, Clark says Michigan could have played a big role in selecting the nominee be keeping its original date. That year the race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton was close and remained undecided through the spring.
Clark says states seek attention during the primary process for a variety of reasons. He says it may be that they want issues important to the state discussed early in the election cycle. Clark says it could also help a candidate favored by leaders in that state.
While there can be advantages for a block of states holding their primaries on the same day, Clark says it may depend on what happens before Michigan casts its votes. And he says a lot could hinge on which candidates remain in the race at that point. Clark says if candidates from the region such as Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker or Ohio Governor John Kasich are campaigning and considered strong contenders it could influence where candidates are willing to spend time and money.
The nominating process for President involves different systems of allocating delegates in different states. Clark says that could also influence campaign strategy. Whether a state has a "winner take all" system or allocates delegates in some other way, such as by Congressional district, will influence how candidates spend their time and money in a state.
Clark says the decisions being made now will have a big impact on who wins the party nominations. But he says it's hard to know who will benefit because it's not clear who the candidates will be in March of next year. Clark says most Republican party leaders probably have an idea of the type of candidate they would like to win the nomination, and there may be debate among Republicans on the ideal candidate. But he says if there is an appearance that the rules have been written to help one particular candidate, it can backfire on the party.
